25 Projections for NAR, CCP, and Commission Trends in 2025

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Twenty twenty-four was something else, wasn’t it?

Thanks to a jury verdict in 2023, commission litigation appeared, at first glance, to turn a corner in the early months of 2024, toward some sort of conclusion. Economists predicted rates would fall. Inflation was improving.

But alas, 2024 ended up, in many ways, more tumultuous than the preceding years. With much of that tumult now in the rearview mirror, though, Inman reached out to various leaders across the industry to get their take on 2025.

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When reporters ask executives for predictions, they usually begin with a caveat that they don’t have a crystal ball. But some did venture a guess at what lies ahead, and the big takeaway this year was their sense of optimism for 2025. The market will improve, many speculated, while real estate institutions will evolve without being obliterated. Nobody thought 2025 would be a repeat of 2024.

What follows are 25 of the predictions industry leaders shared with Inman, edited for length and clarity. These are not all the predictions Inman gathered, but they’re characteristic of overall themes and topics that came up repeatedly.

The market in 2025

The consensus: Industry leaders appear to be cautiously optimistic about the 2025 market and believe recent sluggishness is on its way out. Though nobody anticipated the return of the pandemic-era feeding frenzy, and many mentioned affordability challenges, most envision rates declining and inventory rising.

• Hoby Hanna, CEO of Howard Hanna: We’re seeing some creative things there that I think will open up inventory. I think prices will remain strong. And buyer demand, I believe, will only get stronger when you look at the demographics of millennials and then Gen Z. […] Rates, I believe, will come down in maybe the end of the first quarter, the second quarter. Not to COVID levels, but to fives and sixes as a norm. I think that’s going to fuel more buying and more buying power. So all that being said, we’re optimistic about the year.
• Robert Reffkin, CEO of Compass: Transactions have increased in the year following 10 of the last 11 presidential elections.
• Geoff Wood, CEO of Windermere: The last several years have been anything but normal when it comes to the housing market, but in 2025 we expect things to start to normalize. This includes further modest declines in interest rates and a healthier supply of inventory. All of this should help fuel a rebound in home sales activity while keeping a lid on price growth, which we’re hoping will also serve to improve housing affordability.
• Amy Lessinger, president of RE/MAX: I think that 2025 is going to be a market of cautious momentum. We’re going to see some gradual normalization. I think demand is going to remain strong and that’ll be driven by millennials and some in Gen Z entering the market. But at the same time, it’s coupled with affordability challenges, and I think that will remain in 2025.
• Ruben Gonzales, chief economist at Keller Williams: We anticipate a gradually improving housing market in the year ahead. Rising inventory levels will help ease supply constraints in markets where inventory remains restrictive, and a slow but steady decline in mortgage rates should support stronger demand — though still more subdued compared to recent years. It seems likely rates will fall but remain above 6 percent, shaping a cautiously improving environment for buyers and sellers alike.
• Ryan Serhant, CEO of SERHANT.: I think rates will come down next year. I don’t think they come down significantly. They might have to get worse before they get better. But I think you will see rates decrease because I think the Fed, the mortgage industry as a whole, there is real incentive to create home sales. […] I think 2025 will be a good market, and people are adjusting to the new normal.
• Mauricio Umansky, CEO of The Agency: I predict a much stronger market in 2025. Interest rates are expected to keep falling, which will lower borrowing costs for homebuyers. With the U.S. presidential election behind us, we expect buyer confidence to rise, leading to an overall uptick in the market. I also anticipate an increase in inventory, as many sellers who’ve been holding on to properties since the pandemic may now feel ready to trade up.

Leaders who were a little more cautious than optimistic:

Bess Freedman, Hilary Saunders and Pam Liebman

• Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens: I think that there will be a lot of challenges in the housing market as we kick off the new year, especially for first-time buyers. Mortgage rates are not as low as we’d hoped. The supply is not there, but the demand certainly is. Inflation has really taken a toll on a lot of people, but at the same time, the economy seems to be chugging right along with healthy job growth and relatively stable unemployment. Even with additional rate cuts, I don’t think we are going to suddenly move into a dynamic market come Jan. 1. We need more housing, developers need to be incentivized to build, and I think there has to be a real synergy between private and public sectors to get the market back on track.
• Hilary Saunders, co-founder and chief broker officer at Side: I anticipate prices will remain high, particularly on the coasts. Hopefully, interest rates will stabilize and the new administration will support new-home construction by incentivizing builders to create more affordable housing options in markets with high barriers to entry.
• Pam Liebman, president and CEO of the Corcoran Group: I expect some moderation. However, it’s critical to recognize that even with potential rate adjustments, the lack of inventory remains a major issue. Low housing supply continues to put upward pressure on prices, creating challenges for buyers regardless of where rates land.

The future of Clear Cooperation

Amy Lessinger, Hilary Saunders and Hoby Hanna

The consensus: Inman previously asked real estate leaders where they stand on NAR’s Clear Cooperation Policy. The topic is extremely divisive. For this story, however, Inman also asked what they believe will happen, regardless of their views on the issue. Among those who ventured a prediction, the idea of reform was a recurring theme.

• Amy Lessinger, president of RE/MAX: The Clear Cooperation policy was designed to ensure that listings are accessible to everyone. And I believe that core principle, fairness and transparency, remains vital. That said, the industry is evolving. So could there be opportunity for reform? I think there’s room to have a thoughtful discussion about improving the policy to better serve buyers, sellers and agents while preserving its intent.
• Hilary Saunders, co-founder and chief broker officer at Side: Clear Cooperation certainly isn’t perfect, but the underlying concept behind it is sound. Eliminating Clear Cooperation in its entirety would benefit only the very largest brokerages, while the consumer would be hung out to dry. Too often, large traditional brokerages advocate for self-serving policies they claim will benefit everyone. There are thousands of independent brokerages whose clients could lose access to a significant portion of the nation’s listings. I have faith that on the whole, as an industry, we will fight to maintain some version of this policy.
• Hoby Hanna, CEO of Howard Hanna: What I think will happen is that NAR is going to punt on this and try to stay out of it. They put different surveys and there are different voices arguing. […] I do think that good MLS executive officers are going to begin to say, “You know, maybe we need to go back to what it was before. Maybe we don’t need to follow Clear Cooperation.”

What comes next for NAR

Hoby Hanna, Ryan Serhant, Hilary Saunders, Amy Lessinger and Sue Yannaccone

The consensus: Many leaders anticipate NAR membership falling in the coming year. Another recurring theme was the need for NAR to evolve and address recent criticism over topics such as spending.

• Hoby Hanna, CEO of Howard Hanna: I think [NAR membership] should go down in terms of just a lot of agents that were in the business on a ride for the last couple of years. […] When markets go up and become frothy like they were post-COVID to a little bit of a down market this year, you’re going to see some exit from the industry in general.
• Ryan Serhant, CEO of SERHANT.: Obviously, there are now competitors to NAR. Sometimes you look at a major union like that, and it’s possible it’s too big to fail, right? But that doesn’t mean it’s not too big to fail over time, right? It’s too big to fail in any one moment.
• Hilary Saunders, co-founder and chief broker officer at Side: We haven’t seen the “mass exodus” from NAR that many anticipated. Whether or not that comes to pass, I do believe more part-time agents will move their licenses to referral-only status and funnel leads to full-time professionals. And I hope that moving forward, NAR will do a better job educating the public on why working with a professional, dedicated representative is so important.
• Amy Lessinger, president of RE/MAX: I think the scrutiny that they’ve faced in recent years does highlight the need for meaningful evolution. […] I also think that structurally, they span national, state, local associations. That makes swift and meaningful change a bit challenging. So looking at infrastructure to streamline decision-making and create more agility also could be a key to adapting to industry challenges. But I do think that the Realtor brand still holds value.
• Sue Yannaccone, president and CEO of Anywhere: I do think the industry at large benefits, and we see value in a trade organization that is supportive of its membership. So we’ll see where that ends up. I know we’ve seen some traction around removing membership as a requirement of putting a listing on the MLS, but that’s still being challenged, so I think we’re going to see a lot of change.

The next chapter for commission litigation and the DOJ

Leo Pareja, Rob Hahn and Marty Green

The consensus: All roads seem to lead to commission litigation this year, but generally no one thinks the story is over. The focus may be different, but 2025 is still likely to have plenty of courtroom battles.

• Leo Pareja, CEO of eXp Realty: This is not the end of the litigation and liability and, you know, conversations that are being had in our space. Unfortunately, I think this is the beginning.
• Rob Hahn, real estate strategist: