The debates surrounding the upcoming US election primarily focus on its domestic implications and the consequences for global politics, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, NATO’s future, and the China-Taiwan or Palestine-Israel conflicts. Nevertheless, the outcome of the US election could also impact other vulnerable regions, like the South Caucasus. This area is currently undergoing significant transformation, facing internal tensions and attracting various foreign interests.
The latest survey conducted by the Pew Research Centre reveals significant partisan gaps in determining the US’s top foreign policy priorities. Americans have divided opinions on issues like strengthening NATO and the UN, promoting human rights abroad, and maintaining the US military advantage. Similarly, US politicians also hold conflicting views, with limited bipartisan consensus on America’s global role.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus region—comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—has been subject to varying US strategic approaches. Over the years, the US has navigated through ethnic conflicts, nationalist movements, and geopolitical challenges in the region. The US’s shifting expectations in the region have been influenced by events like the Rose Revolution in Georgia and the Russia-Georgia war in 2008.
The US’s current goals in the region are outlined in integrated country strategies published by the US Department of State. These goals include strengthening democratic institutions, promoting trade and investment, and addressing global and regional threats in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.
Several factors in 2024 will impact the future of the South Caucasus region, such as ongoing peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Georgia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, and the changing international political context following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. These developments have implications for regional stability, economic cooperation, and geopolitical rivalries.
As the US election approaches, regional actors in the South Caucasus are closely watching the outcomes. The preferences of US leadership can significantly influence the geopolitical dynamics and foreign policy orientation of these countries. The potential for peace, integration, and prosperity in the region hinges on a complex interplay of domestic and international factors.
