While “boring” bitcoin has been chopping sideways since March, bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy is trading at its highest level relative to the flagship crypto since 2019. Wolfe Research managing director Rob Ginsberg said he “loves [MicroStrategy’s] chances to get out and continue climbing,” but that the stock is overbought in the near term. He suggested a bitcoin hedge. MSTR BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin and MicroStrategy in 2024 “Lack of enthusiasm for the once high flying asset class is one of the factors that led us to maintain a more defensive, risk off bias of late,” he said in a Wednesday note. “Many of the crypto related equities such as MARA , COIN , & RIOT have acted the same. That is beside one … as MSTR rallied back to the highs over the past few weeks.” “On a relative basis vs. BTC, the stock is at its highest level since 2019,” Ginsberg added. However, “the ratio between the two is deeply overbought. Prior instances have resulted in pullbacks. We propose the thought that tactically hedging these recent gains in MSTR with BTC may not be a bad idea,” he said. Price action in bitcoin has been “nothing short of boring” for seven months, with a floor of about $55,000 and a ceiling of $70,000, he added. Recently, it has consolidated around the lower part of the $60,000 level. Wolfe says the flagship crypto is overdue for a retest of support near $50,000. Bitcoin is up 41% for the year, while MicroStrategy has gained 193%. The fourth quarter tends to be a strong one for risk assets and many investors anticipate bitcoin will rally by the end of the year. MicroStrategy, which tends to be a high beta play on the cryptocurrency, is expected to follow.
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
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