NEW YORK, Jan 06 (IPS) – Trump, who wants an end to the Israeli-Hamas war even before he reassumes the Presidency, must know that denying the Palestinian right to statehood and conceding further Palestinian land to Israel is a recipe for the next horrific inferno that will overshadow even the present calamitous Israel-Hamas war.
Hamas’ horrific October 7 attack and Israel’s massive retaliatory war have fundamentally changed the dynamic of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. New political, psychological, and factual regional conditions have been created since October 7 that cannot be ignored, as they directly impacted not only Israeli-Palestinian relations for a generation but also regional stability.
Trump will have to choose between paving the way toward the establishment of a Palestinian state or setting the stage for the next catastrophic conflagration that will dwarf the current war. Trump should carefully consider the following five crucial changes in regional dynamics if he wants to revive “the deal of the century,” however remote it may seem at this particular juncture.
Hamas’ Massacre and its Psychological Implications
It is hard to overestimate the psychological ramifications of Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israelis as it brought to life images from the Holocaust. In many ways, it reaffirmed Netanyahu’s tragically misleading two-decades-long public narrative and reinforced the pervasive public mindset that the Palestinians posed a perpetual existential threat to Israel.
Thus, any effort that could lead to a two-state solution will face vehement Israeli resistance, which can be mitigated once Israelis come to terms with the fact that their ultimate national security rests on the establishment of a Palestinian state. This must be firmly tied to comprehensive security arrangements to allay the Israelis’ psychologically ingrained national security concerns.
Mutual Realization that Neither can Destroy the Other
After 14 months of brutal war, both sides have failed to achieve their stated objective. Even if Israel captures or kills every Hamas combatant, it cannot liquidate it as a national movement and as an idea. Hamas will survive any losses and terrorize Israel for as long as it takes, albeit knowing that Israel is a formidable military power, far beyond their capacity to destroy.
This mutual realization has changed the dynamic. Though nearly decimated, Hamas largely achieved its goal. It has fundamentally shaken the status quo, making it unequivocally clear that the Palestinian cause will no longer be ignored.
