In late 1957, the US Navy’s Vanguard rocket was ready to launch the world’s first artificial satellite. However, the Soviet Union beat them to it by sending a small metal ball into orbit that they called Sputnik (“Fellow Traveler”). This “Sputnik Moment” had a significant impact on the Space Age, intensifying the race between the United States and the Soviet Union, leading to introspection in the US, and sparking a national effort to enhance science and math education. Eventually, the US won the race to the moon, bringing about changes that affected the nation and the world. The looming question now is: Can the United States come out on top once again?
After sixty-seven years, space has become the pivotal strategic frontier. Yet, the US is facing increased competition from countries like China and Russia, both of which are aiming at Western space assets with weapons that can damage both the economy and defense. Concurrently, the space economy is expanding due to technological advancements in reusability, avionics, and artificial intelligence that are bringing lunar resources closer. Geopolitically, the renewed focus on the moon, initiated by President Trump, is still seen as a geopolitical move and a symbol of national prestige. The outcome of this lunar race will have substantial implications now and in the future.
(Image credit: NASA)
The United States’ National Space Policy, released in December 2020, set a goal for NASA to “land the next American man and the first American woman on the moon by 2024, followed by a sustained presence … by 2028.” However, four years later, both goals are still out of reach. The timeline for NASA’s first crewed lunar landing keeps slipping, with no plans for a permanent presence in the near future. On the contrary, China has announced plans to land Chinese “taikonauts” on the lunar surface before 2030, with potential readiness for a heavy-lift launch vehicle, crew capsule, and lunar lander as early as 2027.
Related: The US is now at risk of losing to China in the race to send people back to the moon’s surface
Given the high stakes, Beijing is likely to take bold steps to land before the end of 2029, marking the 80th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). China has drawn inspiration and adapted technology from the US, echoing the speed-and-expendable Apollo program design of the 1960s. According to Ji Qiming, assistant to the director of the Chinese space agency, primary spacecraft development is complete. If accurate, this puts China ahead of the US in the race for the next crewed lunar landing.
In contrast, NASA’s timeline for the Artemis program is significantly delayed. Artemis 3, the initial planned landing mission, was initially set for late 2025 but recently postponed to no earlier than mid-2027. Recent reports from the Government Accountability Office indicate that Artemis 3 is unlikely to land before 2027 due to delays in lunar lander and spacesuit development. NASA’s internal analysis points to an early 2028 landing with a 70% confidence level, suggesting a possibility of delayed readiness till later in 2028 or even 2029.
The China advantage
The contrasting commitment to deadlines reveals much. While China is resolutely advancing a focused lunar program with political backing, the US program is often affected by political influences, struggling to meet deadlines. Moreover, Artemis faces architectural complexity and regulatory delays. An example is the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) convoluted process for issuing launch licenses to SpaceX for the Starship lunar lander development. Despite recent improvements, licensing procedures need further streamlining to empower American industry.
The risk is that the US could once again fall behind, akin to the situation in the 1950s. Peter Garretson of the American Foreign Policy Council’s (AFPC) Space Policy Initiative likens the current scenario to “The Tortoise and the Hare,” with the US playing the overconfident hare role. With America’s delay juxtaposed with China’s steady progress, there’s a real possibility that the first humans back on the moon won’t be planting the American flag. It’s conceivable that the first woman and “person of color” — a priority for NASA — could be speaking Mandarin, not English. “China and its partners have continued making consecutive achievements,” stated Thomas Zurbuchen, NASA’s former head of science. “There’s no reason to doubt they may be the first to send a crewed mission to the lunar south pole.”
This outcome should ring alarm bells in Washington. A Chinese manned landing before the US would, similar to the original Sputnik Moment, impact the perception of global leadership, reshaping the global power dynamic. It could result in a national humiliation, potentially prompting partnerships with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) across continents.
Chinese presence on the moon would have significant geopolitical implications, particularly in broader space governance. China could leverage the prestige from an early human landing to influence international bodies to create regulations that hinder space development, a domain currently led by the US.
Related: China plans to build moon base at the lunar south pole by 2035
Maintaining leadership in space
In 2016, President Trump redirected NASA’s focus from a challenging crewed asteroid mission to an ambitious plan to return astronauts to the moon with a vision to establish a permanent base as a stepping stone towards a manned Mars landing. This bold commitment, facing numerous delays, risks fading into obscurity.
This juncture is a critical opportunity, sparked by a resolute commitment to advance American interests in space. The US should not squander its hard-earned technological edge by relinquishing control of cislunar space and the lunar surface to others. Failure to act now may result in losing this unique moment, handing over the new era of spaceflight to China.
Beijing’s lunar aspirations are more concrete than mere ‘flags and footprints’. Unlike the US, China’s space efforts are driven by economic development as a central rationale for space exploration. The future is more than a race to achieve ‘firsts’; it’s about exploiting space resources to stimulate economic growth. With lunar land areas comparable to Africa and limited prime real estate, landing zones in the coveted south polar regions are strategically crucial for accessing valuable resources like water ice. These resources are essential for creating rocket fuel and breathable oxygen to ignite the cislunar economy and pave the way towards Mars.
Both the US and China are eyeing the same bright sunlit zones on the moon, making the race to land first imperative. There’s a concern that China could lay claim to these zones, excluding others from access. Former NASA Administrator Bill Nelson cautions, “We better watch out … It is not beyond the realm of possibility that they [China] say, ‘Keep out, we’re here, this is our territory.'” Unfortunately, this lunar competition lacks international agreements on rules and behavior.
Beijing could potentially initiate a lunar land grab under the guise of “landing zones,” “safety zones,” or “research areas,” carrying significant economic and geopolitical consequences. Denied access, NASA and Western entities would face challenges advancing their business plans and resource claims in a lunar standoff. This uncertainty could deter Western investors, potentially sparking conflict and undermining business prospects.
Related: Are we prepared for Chinese preeminence on the moon and Mars? (op-ed)
Unleashing American technology and initiative
American launch providers, particularly SpaceX, and payload delivery companies like Intuitive Machines currently dominate global competitors – for now. Harnessing the synergy of public and private American space capabilities can yield unprecedented leading results in record time. However, American competitors face regulatory obstacles and challenges that could hinder their performance in this lunar race. The US government must strike a balance by empowering private entities while supporting NASA’s efforts to expedite a return to the moon.
Elon Musk has expressed frustration over the multiple licenses required for each Starship rocket launch, alongside prolonged FAA safety assessments. SpaceX has criticized the “patently absurd” regulatory delays in an open letter. Congressional figures, including Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), overseeing the space sector, have also raised concerns about the FAA’s sluggishness, which could undermine Artemis as China surges ahead.
To prevent losing ground to China and Russia in space endeavors, the new Administration and Congress must streamline and simplify launch licensing urgently. Elevating the Office of Commercial Space Transportation from the FAA to report directly to the Secretary of Transportation is a vital first step. This office should be led by a business-savvy professional accountable to the president, as suggested by space policy expert Greg Autry. Clearing regulatory hurdles is the most impactful action lawmakers can take to hasten Artemis.
At present, the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and crewed Orion capsule are the funded technologies for ferrying astronauts to lunar vicinity, albeit with delays and high costs. Sustainable superheavy-lift vehicles like Starship and New Glenn are anticipated to supplant SLS due to cost and scheduling concerns, enabling sustainable human exploration. SpaceX’s Starship or possibly Blue Origin’s Blue Moon could transport crew from Earth to lunar orbit, refuel, and land on the moon. Alternate configurations might encompass Falcon Heavy and New Glenn rockets launching Orion and an upper stage to low Earth orbit (LEO) for a translunar trajectory. With several providers and competition in play, the lunar mission could see exponential progress.
While this is a longer-term project, augmenting the Artemis program with enhanced capabilities, energy, and speed is pivotal for swiftly re-establishing American presence on the moon. Assuming leadership of the National Space Council, Vice President J.D. Vance could pioneer a sense of urgency to land American boots on the lunar surface promptly, eventually establishing a permanent presence by 2030 through public-private collaborations. Forward-thinking space-economic initiatives such as propellant purchase guarantees in orbit, subsidized resource mining, and expedited timelines could revolutionize the commercial space sector, prompting SpaceX, Blue Origin, and traditional aerospace entities to vie for contracts at fair, fixed rates. This approach benefits all stakeholders.
Our place in history
Finally, the concept of the “Tide of History,” or cultural zeitgeist, comes into play. The original Sputnik Moment spurred a robust American response, culminating in the victory of Apollo 11. Yet, concerns of a potential “reverse Apollo moment” loom. If China lands humans on the moon first, the US could face global embarrassment, national pride loss, and a deep crisis of initiative, potentially posing a threat to Western democracies as China steers the future of space and human civilization in space and on Earth.
Resting on past accomplishments, especially in the modern and high-profile space domain, risks forfeiting the future. For multiple reasons – national security, geopolitics, economics, and cultural significance – being the first to return humans to the moon is crucial. There are no rewards for second place. The world is watching.
John Kross is the Senior Contributing Editor for Ad Astra magazine and a retired medical editor and writer. Rod Pyle is the Editor-in-Chief of Ad Astra magazine and author of “Space 2.0: How Private Spaceflight, a Resurgent NASA, and International Partners are Creating a New Space Age.” They have contributed this article to Space.com’s Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights.
