Apr 24 – CIVICUS discusses Ecuador’s presidential election with Jorge Tapia de los Reyes, Coordinator of the Democracy and Politics Department and the Political Funding Observatory of the Citizenship and Development Foundation (FCD). FCD is an Ecuadorian civil society organisation that promotes participation, citizen monitoring and open government.
On 13 April, Daniel Noboa, candidate for the National Democratic Action (ADN) movement, was elected president with around 56 per cent of the vote, comfortably beating Luisa González of the left-wing Citizen Revolution (RC) party. Noboa had been elected in October 2023 to complete the interrupted term of former President Guillermo Lasso, so this election will allow him to serve a full term. In a country with high levels of insecurity, the election was peaceful and turnout reached 83 per cent. Noboa’s ability to tackle organised crime will be key to the success of his government.
How surprising was the scale of Noboa’s victory?
The election result surprised all political analysts. Polls had predicted a very close race, with differences of no more than two or three percentage points, roughly between 100,000 and 300,000 votes.
However, the reality on the ground was very different. Noboa won by a margin of more than 10 points, with a lead of over 1,200,000 votes. This phenomenon could be explained by what is known to political scientists as the ‘spiral of silence’ or ‘shame vote’: many voters hid their preference for Noboa in the polls or decided to support him at the last minute rather than spoil their vote.
What was Noboa’s campaign strategy in the face of growing insecurity?
None of the candidates presented solid or detailed policy proposals during the campaign. The electoral debate was dominated by personal attacks and strategies to discredit each other.
Nevertheless, insecurity emerged as the central issue, and this is where Noboa found his greatest strength. Ecuador is experiencing an unprecedented crisis of violence, with an alarming average of one violent death every hour in the first quarter of 2025, making it the most violent country in Latin America.
Noboa’s proposal took a security-focused and forceful approach. His rhetoric emphasised tangible action against organised crime, mafias and drug trafficking, which have spread terror among the population. A much-discussed strategic move was his meeting with Erik Prince, CEO of Blackwater, a controversial private security company with experience of US operations in conflict zones such as Afghanistan and Iraq. This meeting, criticised by progressives, reinforced his image as a candidate determined to tackle violence.
Noboa’s communications team also knew how to capitalise on his rival’s mistakes. While the RC questioned the current hegemony of the US dollar, Noboa positioned himself as a defender of monetary stability, thereby reinforcing dollarisation. While the RC proposed community-based solutions to insecurity, such as peace mediators, Noboa opted to strengthen the traditional security institutions of the armed forces and the national police. Ultimately, Noboa capitalised on collective fears of a potential return of the political group led by former president Rafael Correa, to which González belongs, and managed to position himself as the guarantor of stability and order.
Are opposition allegations of electoral fraud justified?
Absolutely not. The National Electoral Council (CNE) conducted a technically flawless operation that exceeded expectations. The verification and counting system allowed the results to be viewed transparently and in real time, eliminating any suspicion of manipulation.
Moreover, the size of the margin of victory makes any scenario of fraud mathematically implausible. Although the RC has denounced alleged irregularities such as unsigned ballot papers to justify its request for a recount, these allegations quickly lost credibility when the official results were announced. To order a recount, the CNE needs evidence, and there is none.
Additionally, on the morning after the election, representatives of some opposition parties, various national authorities and international observers from the Organization of American States and the European Union confirmed the integrity of the electoral process. This endorsement confirmed that, despite the challenges, Ecuador’s democratic institutions functioned properly.
What role did civil society play in ensuring transparent elections?
The role of organised citizens was crucial to the success of the democratic process. Through various monitoring and observation initiatives, civil society acted as an effective counterweight to potential irregularities.
The work of civil society went beyond election observation: we are committed to building an informed and critical citizenry. We understand democracy not only as the act of voting, but as a continuous process of education, information and participation. With this in mind, we set up a system to monitor and verify fake news on social media to combat disinformation and its harmful effects on the electoral process.
Many disinformation campaigns are specifically designed to create fear and apathy and discourage participation. Our work sought to counter these strategies by providing verified information and reminding people that only the CNE has the legal authority to issue official results or respond to reports of irregularities.
What are the main challenges facing Noboa’s government?
Although there will be continuity, this will be Noboa’s first full term in office, as his previous administration was a transitional period to complete the term of the previous president, Guillermo Lasso, after his early departure.
The most urgent and unavoidable challenge will be to control the spiral of violence. Noboa will have to implement effective strategies to drastically reduce homicide rates and restore security in public spaces. Civil society demands a comprehensive approach that goes beyond a purely punitive or militarised response, incorporating preventive and social inclusion programmes to offer viable alternatives to young people in vulnerable contexts, preventing their recruitment by criminal organisations.
On the economic front, the government faces an extremely fragile fiscal situation. Current revenue is insufficient to cover the state’s basic operating expenses. This problem was exacerbated during the election campaign, when around US$560 million was allocated to bonuses and extraordinary payments to various constituencies to secure their votes. It worked: citizens felt heard, but at the same time fiscal sustainability was compromised. The new government will have to balance public finances without shifting the burden of adjustment onto the most vulnerable groups, focusing on improving tax collection from large taxpayers and combating tax evasion.
Governance is another key challenge. Noboa will face a fragmented congress where no political force has a majority, which will require negotiation skills and consensus building to advance his legislative agenda.
In terms of international relations, Noboa will have to define Ecuador’s strategic position in the complex scenario of the trade war between China and the USA, both crucial trading partners for the Ecuadorian economy. The issue of migration will be particularly sensitive, considering that the stability of Ecuador’s dollarisation depends significantly on remittances sent by Ecuadorian migrants in the USA, many of whom are now victims of more restrictive immigration policies. Although Noboa has initiated bilateral talks on this issue, it remains to be seen whether he will be able to secure special protections for the Ecuadorian community against the mass deportations ordered by Donald Trump.
But it’s crucial to understand that Noboa did not receive a blank cheque. To a large extent, his victory represents a rejection of the RC’s political project rather than unconditional support for AND’s programme. Noboa will therefore have to build his own legitimacy based on tangible results in addressing the country’s most pressing problems.
As civil society, our commitment is to maintain active and constructive oversight of the government’s performance. Our role doesn’t end with the elections. It is essential that we remain organised to demand accountability, denounce potential abuses and defend democratic values. Only an alert and participatory citizenry can ensure the state fulfils its obligations.
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© Inter Press Service (2025) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service
