As United States President Donald Trump made an early exit from the Group of Seven summit in Canada on Tuesday, he told reporters he believed Iran was “very close” to building nuclear weapons.
This contradicted US intelligence reports. On March 25, Trump’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, unambiguously told members of the US Congress that Iran was not moving towards building nuclear weapons.
“The IC [intelligence community] continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader [Ali] Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme he suspended in 2003,” she said, referring to a collection of US spy agencies that collaborate to make such assessments.
Trump’s latest remarks also mark a shift from his position on Iran last month when he said the US and Iran were close to securing a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Even over the course of the Iran-Israel conflict, which was in its seventh day on Thursday, Trump’s position on Iran’s nuclear capabilities and whether the US is prepared to get involved with its conflict with Israel has changed.
Shortly after Israel attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites on Friday, Trump administration officials stated that the US was not involved.
Since then, however, Trump has indicated that the US might become involved in Israel’s conflict with Iran, leaving allies and adversaries guessing what the next action will be. In particular, Israel wants the US to supply “bunker buster” bombs, which would enable its forces to penetrate the Fordow nuclear facility, located deep inside a mountain in northwest Iran.
On Wednesday, Trump refused to say whether the US would join the conflict.
“I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” he told reporters outside the White House.
Later, Trump said Iranian officials wanted to visit Washington for talks. He said it is “a little late” for such talks but “we may do that.”
Trump’s wavering stance on Iran has sparked serious concerns for many in his MAGA base, named after his campaign slogan, Make America Great Again. Those concerned supporters believe US involvement in a fresh war goes against Trump’s campaign promise of putting America First and of staying out of conflicts involing others.
Here is how Trump’s position has changed since he moved back into the White House in January:
February: Trump ‘restores maximum pressure’ on Iran
On February 4, the White House announced that Trump had signed a national security presidential memorandum restoring “maximum pressure” on Tehran aimed at “denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon, and countering Iran’s malign influence abroad”.
Trump made clear that he was reluctant to threaten force – angling instead for a diplomatic solution via talks.
While the memorandum lacked details on what “maximum pressure” would entail and hinted that measures could be tough, Trump also said he was “torn” and “unhappy” about signing it and added that he hoped “it’s not going to have to be used in any great measure at all”.
May 15: Trump says the US and Iran are close to a nuclear deal
During his Gulf tour last month, Trump’s diplomatic stance appeared to be holding. Trump said the US had engaged in “very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace”. He added that Washington and Tehran had “sort of” agreed to the terms of a nuclear deal.
“We’re getting close to maybe doing a deal. … There [are] two steps to doing this: There is a very, very nice step, and there is the violent step, but I don’t want to do it the second way,” he said.
May 17: Trump warns Iran over Houthi attacks
Just two days after claiming to be close to a deal with Iran on nuclear weapons, Trump went on the attack on social media: “Let nobody be fooled! The hundreds of attacks being made by Houthi, the sinister mobsters and thugs based in Yemen, who are hated by the Yemeni people, all emanate from, and are created by, IRAN,” Trump wrote.
Tensions had been mounting for months as the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched attacks on Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea and on Israel itself over Israel’s war on Gaza.
May 28: Trump warns Netanyahu against Iran attack
On May 28, Trump seemed to have reversed this stance again, however, when he said he had told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off on any strike on Iran because it “would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a [diplomatic] solution [on Iran’s nuclear status]”.
June 13: Trump administration says US ‘not involved’ in Iran attacks
After Israel attacked Iran on Friday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a statement, saying: “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.”
Rubio added: “Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel.”
June 17: Trump calls for Iran’s surrender, calls Khamenei an ‘easy target’
On Tuesday, Trump’s anti-Iran rhetoric switched gears again. He posted on his Truth Social platform in reference to Iran: “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
In another post, he wrote of Khamenei: “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Trump told reporters he wanted a real end to the issue of whether Iran is developing nuclear weapons, which Tehran denies, rather than just a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
The White House released a statement saying Trump has “never wavered in his stance that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon”. The statement listed instances from 2011 through Tuesday when Trump said Iran should not have nuclear weapons.
June 18: ‘I may do it. I may not’
On Wednesday, Trump told reporters asking about whether the US could become involved in the Iran-Israel conflict: “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.”
How has Iran responded?
Iran has insisted its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful and for civilian purposes, citing a religious edict issued by Khamenei in the early 2000s, banning the production of weapons by saying it is forbidden in Islam.
On Wednesday, Khamenei rejected Trump’s calls for surrender in his first televised message since Israel began its attacks on Iran. “Any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage,” Khamenei said.
Iran has moved to uranium enrichment of 60 percent at its nuclear facilities, close to the 90 percent enrichment needed to make nuclear weapons.
However, like US intelligence reports, the United Nations nuclear watchdog also said it has found no evidence of Iranian nuclear weapons production. “We did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon,” said Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
What stance did Trump take on Iran and nuclear weapons during his first term?
Tensions were generally high between Iran and Trump during the US president’s first term:
2018-2019: Tensions after Trump’s withdrawal from nuclear deal
In 2018, Trump announced the US withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a nuclear deal signed between Iran and a group of countries led by the US in 2015. The group also consisted of the European Union, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom.
The deal banned uranium enrichment at Fordow and allowed only peaceful development of nuclear technology in Iran for energy production in return for the complete lifting of sanctions. Iran agreed to refrain from any uranium enrichment and research into uranium enrichment at Fordow for 15 years. It also agreed not to keep any nuclear material there but instead to “convert the Fordow facility into a nuclear, physics and technology centre”.
But tensions have been mounting between Iran and the US since then.
In December 2019, a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base killed a US contractor and injured several US service members alongside Iraqi personnel. US officials blamed the Iran-backed Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah for the attack.
In the same month, the US military retaliated by striking locations belonging to Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq and Syria.
2020: The killing of Soleimani and its aftermath
On January 3, 2020, the US assassinated Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, in a drone strike in Baghdad. The White House said this was done to deter future Iranian attack plans as it accused Soleimani of “actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region”.
On January 9, 2020, Trump said Soleimani had been killed “because they were looking to blow up our embassy” in Baghdad.
The US also threatened to hit Iranian sites hard if Iran attacked the US or its assets. The US has 19 military sites in the Middle East, at which 40,000 to 50,000 soldiers are stationed.
In March 2020, three soldiers belonging to a US-led coalition were killed in a rocket attack at the Taji military base housing US and coalition troops near Baghdad. The US imposed a new set of sanctions on Iran.
On June 29, 2020, Tehran issued an arrest warrant for Trump and several of his aides over Soleimani’s killing.
