Trump takes victory lap but pitfalls remain

Aboard Air Force One en route to the Nato summit in the Netherlands, Trump shared a personal text message from a somewhat unlikely source.

It was sent by Nato boss Mark Rutte who praised the American president for what he had accomplished in using US bombers to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran, ” wrote Rutte in a message the president posted to his Truth Social account. “That was truly extraordinary and something no one else dared to do.”

Trump has had his differences with Nato in the past, as he’s called into doubt the alliance’s mutual defence agreement and the military contributions made by other member nations.

Rutte addressed that, as well, telling Trump he was “flying into another big success” at the Nato summit, where member nations had agreed to Trump’s demand to boost defence spending to 5% of their gross domestic product.

“It will be your win,” he concluded.

The warm words, and the president’s eagerness to share them to the world, illustrated just how much the diplomatic equation in the Middle East and among US allies has changed for Trump.

Last week he left the G7 summit in Canada a day early, as conflict raged between Israel and Iran and it appeared increasingly likely the US would join the fight.

The Americans attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday night, but by Tuesday morning the president departed Washington for another international trip, this time with a fragile ceasefire established between the two warring parties.

Rutte’s text – which a Nato press officer confirmed to the BBC as authentic – dovetails with the accounts provided on and off the record by White House officials.

Trump’ military strike removed the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons. His actions triggered the ceasefire and ended what he calls the “12 Day War”.

His involvement and his pressure – including an angry outburst directed at both sides on Tuesday morning and what the White House called an “exceptionally firm and direct” phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from Air Force One – ensured that the ceasefire would hold.

Last week, America’s allies were anxious. Now, it appears Trump is heading to Europe with the intention of basking in their praise.

The outlook, however, is more complicated than that.

While the administration touts that the US bombing raid “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear research facilities, US military intelligence officials have told American media that the damage is not as severe as the White House has claimed.

The country’s nuclear programme has probably only been set back by months, according to a Pentagon intelligence assessment. And the Islamic Republic’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not eliminated in the bombings, sources familiar with the report told CBS News.

Questions remain about the quantity and location of Iran’s enriched uranium supply – a key component of a nuclear weapon. There are also reports of the existence of an undisclosed and undamaged research facility elsewhere in Iran.

While the ceasefire is holding for now, Middle East truces are notoriously tenuous. Iran’s leadership has been weakened through two weeks of devastating Israeli attacks and the nation’s future is uncertain.

One need only look at the long bloody civil war in Syria to see the risks presented when an authoritarian government loses its grip on power. Trump has talked of “love, peace and prosperity” for Iran, but chaos,, and regional turmoil, are still a realistic possibility.

And although Trump appears to have stopped the two-week Israel-Iran fighting, the wars that Trump inherited and promised to end, in Gaza and Ukraine, rage on.

For this White house, however, those appear to be concerns for another day.

At the moment, the dire warnings of Trump’s domestic critics, particularly within his own party, have proven unfounded. Republican Congressman Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who had planned to introduce legislation curtailing Trump’s use of military force in Iran, has announced he is abandoning that effort for now.

That has given Trump the political space to herald what his administration is trumpeting as an unqualified success.

Since Trump picked him as his vice-presidential running mate, JD Vance has often sought to add ideological substance to Trump’s America First politics.

On Tuesday morning, the vice-president took to Truth Social to offer his take on what he said were the three parts of Trump’s “foreign policy doctrine”.

“1) clearly define an American interest; 2) negotiate aggressively to achieve that interest; 3) use overwhelming force if necessary,” he wrote.

As doctrines go, however, that’s not much to work with.

Often, the president’s foreign policy seems reactive and contradictory, more tactical than strategic – whether it’s applying and removing tariffs or negotiating with allies and adversaries.

In the past two weeks, Trump has swung between distancing the US from Israel’s attacks on Iran to becoming an active participant in them; from calling for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” to negotiating a ceasefire with unclear terms; from entertaining the idea of regime change to downplaying it.

It makes for a rollercoaster ride, with the prospect of a catastrophic derailment seemingly around every bend.

But results, as they say, speak for themselves. And this week, Trump’s tumultuous ride has ended in a victory lap.