Elon Musk is known for making bold and sometimes ridiculous predictions. Here’s how we can … More
In a recent interview with Joe Rogan, Elon Musk expressed that establishing a city on Mars is crucial to ensure the survival of humanity, citing the potential risk of humanity facing challenges like “dying in adult diapers.” He states:
“Can we make Mars self-sustainable before civilization reaches a point where there’s a possibility of war, nuclear conflict, or a catastrophic event like a meteor strike, or simply civilization might fade away quietly in adult diapers instead of dramatically? I believe we can achieve this. […] We should ensure that we spread human consciousness to Mars before our civilization either vanishes or diminishes. The only requirement is that the technological capabilities on Earth do not fall below the level needed to send spacecraft to Mars. Therefore, if there’s a destructive war or a natural disaster, or if the birth rate is so low that we face a decline leading to a scenario where we decay quietly in adult diapers—that’s a potential outcome for many nations.”
Musk also highlights the extremely low birth rates in certain developed countries, such as Japan and Korea. He explains:
“At the current birth rates, in three generations, Korea’s population will be reduced to about 4% of its current size. […]
Maybe even less than that. They are only at 1/3rd of the replacement rate. So in three generations, the population will be 1/27th of its current size, which is 3%.”
Musk presents a grim outlook on human population levels—a concern he has previously raised. But are his concerns justified? Here’s a brief analysis by an evolutionary biologist with expertise in population dynamics.
1. The World’s Population Has Grown Significantly Over The Past Century, And It Will Keep Growing
The global population has surged from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 8 billion today.
For the first time in history, the global population has surpassed eight billion in 2022. This is astounding considering the population was just 2.5 billion in 1950 and seven billion in 2010.
Furthermore, the human population continues to rise. According to U.N. projections, the world is projected to reach a population of around 10 billion by 2050 and possibly 10.5 billion by the mid-2080s.
It is likely that overpopulation is a more pressing concern than under-population.
2. Population Growth Is Slowing Down, But It Doesn’t Spell Doom for Humanity
Throughout most of history, population growth has been marginally positive. From ancient times until the Industrial Revolution, global population growth averaged approximately 0.04% per year. However, after 1800, the growth rate increased significantly, peaking at about 2% annually in the 1960s. Subsequently, a decline in fertility rates globally has led to a decrease in the growth rate, although it remains positive.
While certain countries, particularly highly developed ones like Japan and South Korea, are experiencing challenges with population decline, humanity as a whole is faring well.
This phenomenon is observed frequently in the animal kingdom, where a species may be declining in a specific area but growing on a global scale.
An example of this is the Florida panther, the last remaining puma population in the eastern United States.
Once abundant, now endangered in the U.S., the Florida panther faces a fight for survival.
Driven to the edge of extinction by habitat loss and human persecution, the Florida panther is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. However, the puma species as a whole, Puma concolor, is the most widespread land mammal in the Americas, ranging from Canada to Patagonia.
With stable populations across much of its range, the puma is deemed of Least Concern by the IUCN Red List, indicating a low risk of extinction. The challenges faced by the Florida panther, while severe, represent a localized conservation issue rather than a crisis for the species at large.
A similar situation is observed with the Scottish wildcat, a critically endangered population of the European wildcat (Felis silvestris). Once prevalent throughout Britain, the Scottish wildcat now survives in small, fragmented populations due to habitat loss, hunting, and interbreeding with domestic cats. Despite its critical status in Scotland, the European wildcat species as a whole remains relatively secure, with strong populations across mainland Europe. Like the Florida panther, the Scottish wildcat illustrates how local population declines may not necessarily signify a threat of extinction for the entire species.
3. Population Decline Is an Addressable Issue
What makes the concept of population decline, as portrayed in the adult diaper analogy, even more questionable is that it appears to be more solvable than other threats that could imperil humanity. In essence, governments can influence whether this number increases or decreases, by, for instance, providing incentives like a child tax credit to encourage procreation.
Similarly, numerous instances in the natural world demonstrate how intelligent policies have aided in the recovery of animal populations.
Returning to the Florida panther: by the 1990s, its population had plummeted to less than 30 individuals, facing significant challenges from inbreeding and road accidents. Recognizing these hurdles, conservationists introduced individuals from a genetically similar puma population in Texas, enhancing genetic diversity and improving offspring survival rates.
Furthermore, the establishment of wildlife corridors helped reduce vehicular fatalities, further assisting in population resurgence. Thanks to these endeavors, the Florida panther population has now increased to approximately 200 individuals.
Likewise, Scottish wildcats are benefiting from targeted conservation efforts. Programs for captive breeding have been established to safeguard the population, while conservationists are addressing the complex issue of hybridization with domestic cats.
Ongoing initiatives aim to “rewild” the Scottish wildcat genome by selectively breeding individuals with minimal domestic cat genealogy, with the objective of restoring a genetically pure and self-sustaining wild population. These examples illustrate how proactive conservation measures can reverse population declines and prevent localized extinctions.
The adult diaper theory, even in its clever naming, appears to be a less plausible scenario for humanity’s potential demise. Moreover, safeguarding humanity’s future by transforming into a “multi-planetary” species, as Musk advocates, seems riskier than focusing on the preservation of our planet’s delicate ecosystem.
Perhaps more concerning than the adult diaper theory of population decline is the impact of climate change on demographics. How concerned are you? Find out where you stand using the evidence-based Climate Change Worry Scale to see how your level of concern compares to others.
