Eyes on These 3 Factors as Another Busy Hurricane Season Approaches

Earlier this week, forecasters at Colorado State University issued its first forecast for the 2025 hurricane season. They call for another above-average season. This prediction comes at a time when the nation is still recovering from devastating hurricanes in 2024 and adjusting to sweeping federal changes. Here are three things to keep an eye on as the June 1st start date for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches.

Sea Surface Temperatures In The Atlantic Basin

The seasonal hurricane forecasting group at CSU calls for 17 named storms with 9 hurricanes, and 4 of them exceeding the threshold for “major.” According to the group, a typical year has about 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes with 3 reaching category 3 or greater. Their website pointed out, “Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time.” Other forecasting groups are likely to issue similar numbers in the coming weeks.

The Fate Of La Niña

La Niña conditions in the eastern Pacific region are expected to transition back to a neutral state though the exact evolution into the summer and fall is still uncertain. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team warned, “A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The group considers other factors in their assessment including five analog years, which suggest an active season. However, hurricane expert and former hurricane hunter Jeff Masters cautioned that April forecasts should be taken with a “grain of salt.” He wrote, “This does not mean a particular April forecast will be incorrect — just that, on average, a forecast simply using climatology would do as well or better. April forecasts must deal with the so-called spring predictability barrier.” What’s that? It is a time period in which the La Niña, neutral, or El Niño transition can be a bit volatile. CSU will issue another forecast in June, and NOAA will debut its prediction in May, according to Masters.

NOAA’s Capacity

Beyond atmospheric and oceanic conditions, it will be important to monitor NOAA’s capacity and morale. The National Weather Service and its National Hurricane Center are true heroes providing critical weather information and warnings for individuals, businesses, and our national security stakeholders. According to the Associated Press, roughly 55 of 122 NWS field offices reached vacancy rates of 20% in the wake of recent cuts at the agency. AP reported that eight offices are missing at least 35% of their staff members.

Prior to recent cuts, it had been reported that NWS offices were already understaffed. Some offices have cut back on services like launching weather balloons, which provide critical atmospheric data for the weather forecast models. Some offices, including some that recently experienced deadly tornadic storms in their forecast area, delayed damage assessments, according to AP. During an initial round of cuts, several flight crew members in the critical NOAA Hurricane Hunters were fired, but some of them have since been rehired, according to USA Today.

The National Hurricane Center broke records in 2024 for track forecast accuracy. According to an agency website, “The mean track errors at every forecast interval (12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 h) broke records for accuracy, meaning that NHC’s 2024 forecast track performance was its best in history.” The planes, computer models, observations, ocean measurements and radar data are critical to that success. When Hurricane Helene (2024) and Hurricane Milton (2024) approached the U.S., we were not caught off guard and had ample time to prepare. Beyond equipment and data, the morale of meteorologists, pilots, and other staff within NOAA is just as vital to their life-saving mission. And they always show up.