The Paris Agreement, turning ten in 2025, presents an opportunity to assess the feasibility of its long-term goals and their implications for current and future generations. In an optimistic scenario, meeting the Paris Agreement goals may resolve the climate crisis by the end of the 21st century. However, an overshoot period is likely by the mid-century, where global temperatures surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This overshoot generation will face the challenge of removing significant amounts of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, potentially relying on untested technologies for success.
Conflicting interests of three generations will play a crucial role: the current generation, the overshoot generation, and the post-overshoot generation. With power imbalances across generations, the current generation may prioritize its interests even if it may eventually benefit future generations. The success of the Paris Agreement hinges on balancing these interests for the greater good.
The lack of a concrete pathway for achieving the Paris Agreement goals poses challenges, with potential overshoot scenarios and varying interpretations of how to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The concept of a “just transition” has been discussed, focusing on current generation stakeholders, but overlooking the justice implications for future generations.
The overshoot generation faces the burden of retroactively mitigating emissions from past generations, necessitating scalable carbon capture technologies and even geoengineering solutions. Solutions like afforestation may not be sufficient, leading to the need for innovative strategies to tackle historical emissions.
International relations play a crucial role in addressing global climate challenges. The need for cooperation and equitable burden-sharing across generations is paramount to ensure a sustainable future for all. Ignoring the plight of future generations, as advocated by the “lifeboat ethics” approach, is shortsighted and risks worsening the climate crisis for all.
Possible Pathways
Maintain the increase in the global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and make efforts to limit this temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.
Figure 1: Pathways compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement
Figure 2: Pathways that would limit global warming to 1.5°C
