Is the next dalai lama likely to reincarnate in India? Many scholars of Tibetan Buddhism believe that if the 14th dalai lama Tenzin Gyatso, who turns 90 on Sunday, can exercise his spiritual will, he would prefer to be reborn in India. He has spent 66 years in India since he arrived to escape Chinese persecution in 1959. Bulk of Tibet’s 1,30,000 exiles live in India and Nepal.
‘The reincarnation will most likely happen in India,’ said Claude Arpi, author of several books on Tibet. ‘Buddhism emerged in India before reaching Tibet. There are about a million Buddhists in India. There is also the issue of protecting the child who will be the chosen successor. I don’t think any other country will be a suitable place for the succession.’
Tibetans learnt a bitter lesson when a 6-yr-old boy anointed by the dalai lama as the 11th panchen lama – second only to the former in spiritual authority – suddenly vanished in 1995 from Lhari county in Tibet shortly after the announcement. Chinese authorities immediately replaced him with their nominee – an important reason why the dalai lama has said that his reincarnation would be born in the ‘free world’.
Speaking on Wednesday, the dalai lama has made it clear that he will not be the last leader of the movement to preserve and promote Tibetan autonomy and culture amid aggressive suppression. He also made it clear that his successor will be chosen by monks in a trust created by him, while rejecting China’s claim that Beijing is the sole appointing authority.
Though India has refused to overtly play the ‘Tibet card’, it is a fact that the presence of the dalai lama and so many other Tibetans has helped raise India’s profile among supporters of human rights across the world and as a soft power. The question is whether it would actively support the Tibetan leader’s quest to preserve the tradition of succession, or be a silent spectator.
It would have been best if Narendra Modi visited Dharamshala to greet the dalai lama on Sunday. But since he will be attending the BRICS meet in Rio on June 6-7, he may consider sending the home minister. Kiren Rijiju, a Buddhist from Arunachal Pradesh, is expected to attend. But a few more representatives of GoI would help send out a powerful signal.
If the ‘Tibet card’ is to be played after decades of reluctance, it must be done in the most visible fashion.
For decades, India has disallowed any form of anti-China demonstration by Tibetan exiles. In 2008, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao expressed appreciation to Manmohan Singh after Delhi Police detained Tibetan demonstrators during his visit.
China has not just provided sophisticated military hardware to Pakistan, but also condoned cross-border terrorism. Beijing opened a new front by attacking the Galwan Valley in Ladakh in June 2020. It’s now encouraging anti-India plans in Bangladesh.
Rijiju has taken the first step by stating on Thursday that China has no business appointing the next dalai lama. ‘This is not about politics – it’s about religious belief,’ he said ahead of his Dharamshala visit. ‘No one has the right to interfere or decide who the successor of his holiness the dalai lama will be. Only he or the institution has the authority to make that decision.’
Tibetan Buddhists across the world expect greater support from New Delhi. ‘Reincarnation of the dalai lama, the panchen lama and other great Buddhist figures must be chosen by drawing lots from a golden urn, and approved by the central government,’ Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning had said earlier this week. China is determined to place a lackey as a successor. India has an opportunity to reaffirm the values that prompted Jawaharlal Nehru to provide space for settling Tibetan refugees fleeing from China-annexed Tibet in 1950-51.
Many Americans hope the reincarnation would take place in the US, which is best suited to handle Beijing’s pressures. This is one of the reasons why the Biden administration got US Congress to pass the Resolve Tibet Act in 2024. The Act asserts that Chinese officials are ‘historically inaccurate in claiming that Tibet has been part of China since ancient times’. It also says the US would encourage a negotiated settlement between China and the dalai lama’s representatives.
But few people expect Trump, who is in the process of finalising a trade deal with China, to implement the Act, or cause political discomfiture to Chinese leaders at this stage.
Speaking at London’s Royal Albert Hall in 2008, the dalai lama said that Buddhism was introduced in Tibet by ‘a great philosopher and logician, Shantarakshita, from India’ in the 8th c. It is for India to preserve Tibetan Buddhism from possible decay if the Chinese have their way. In fact, not acting can send a signal to Beijing that India is still ‘careful’ about irritating China’s leaders.
