Somehow, 2025 is halfway over, and as alarming as that might be, it does bring us all that much closer to another Oscar season. The first six months of the year featured not only some stellar films, but a handful of potential nominees that could linger in the minds of Academy voters.
While movies released in the first half of the year may generally have a harder time on ballots thanks to recency bias, we’re only a few years removed from a Best Picture winner that opened in March.
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With that in mind, here are a few early predictions for movies released from January to June that could go the distance and possibly ride it out to year-end awards.
Sinners — Best Picture
Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.
Let’s get this one out of the way now. As the sun sets on the first half of 2025, it’s not a question of whether Ryan Coogler‘s vampire thriller is in the conversation for a Best Picture nomination, but how many other nods it will rack up in all. Obviously, everything is contingent on how the rest of the year shakes out, but there are compelling arguments to be made for Michael B. Jordan in Best Actor, Autumn Durald Arkapaw‘s gorgeous large-format work in Best Cinematography, previous winner Hannah Beachler in Best Production Design, two-time winners Ruth E. Carter in Best Costumes and Ludwig Göransson in Best Score, and Best Makeup and Hairstyling, just to name a few. Sinners could very well be an absolute monster.
28 Years Later — Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Danny Boyle and Alex Garland‘s follow-up to their revolutionary zombie flick has garnered some of the best reviews of the summer movie season, which could serve to legitimize it in the eyes of awards voters at the end of the year. There would still be a major anti-horror stigma within the Academy that Years would need to overcome in order to secure a nomination. (Could Sinners help with that?) But the safest bet at this juncture would be the stellar makeup work on the film’s myriad infected.
Lilo & Stitch — Best Visual Effects
Lilo and Stitch
The latest Disney live-action remake is currently sitting at number two for the year’s domestic box office so far, and it brought in the haul largely on the strength of a visual effect. A cute, little blue visual effect. The studio’s redoes have a spotty track record for making it into the category, and none has won apart from 2016’s The Jungle Book. But with Lilo & Stitch as the bona fide hit of the year (that doesn’t have intentionally blocky CGI like A Minecraft Movie), inclusion in Best Visual Effects seems like a safe bet.
Elio — Best Animated Feature
Pixar’s latest effort did not get the reception that the animation studio was hoping for, but with decent reviews and the company’s sterling track record for nominations behind it, Elio is more likely to get a nomination than not. (A context-free fact: Elemental was nominated for Best Animated Feature.)
Sorry, Baby — Best Original Screenplay
Eva Victor in ‘Sorry, Baby’ (Photo: Sundance Institute/Mia Cioffy Henry)
Just making the cut-off for consideration is writer-director Eva Victor‘s heartfelt breakout Sorry, Baby. It earned some of the best reviews coming out of Sundance in January, where Victor took home the Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award. Considering that the Best Original Screenplay lineup can often function as the Oscar’s own “Our Favorite Indie Movies,” Victor’s sparkling debut could make the leap to the Academy Awards if it’s received broadly enough as its rollout continues in the coming weeks.
Mickey 17 — Best Adapted Screenplay
Robert Pattinson stars in Mickey 17 from director Bong Joon Ho
It took six years to get a new Bong Joon Ho film into theaters after he emerged triumphant at the 2020 Academy Awards with Parasite — recently named the best movie of the century so far by the New York Times. The result was Mickey 17, a somewhat divisive, but undeniably playful movie that indulged in Bong’s wackier instincts (a compliment). If there’s any hope for Mickey 17 to make an appearance on Oscar night, the writers branch seems most likely to celebrate Bong’s return with a nomination in Adapted Screenplay.
Michael Cera in The Phoenician Scheme — Best Supporting Actor
Michael Cera as Bjorn and Mia Threapleton as Liesl in director Wes Anderson’s ‘The Phoenician Scheme’
No actor has ever been nominated for their work in a Wes Anderson movie. A horrifying fact, but a fact nonetheless. And it makes this pick more of a wishdiction than a prediction. The fact remains, however, that Cera slotted so effortlessly into the Anderson milieu that it’s hard to believe that this is their first collaboration. Comedic performances across the board deserve more of the Academy’s attention, and a perfectly calibrated one in a Wes Anderson movie wouldn’t be a bad place to start.
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