Russia’s Overlooked Invasion: The Causes of the 2014 Outbreak of War in Ukraine’s Donbas
By Jakob Hauter
Columbia University Press, 2024
Jakob Hauter’s Russia’s Overlooked Invasion presents a compelling examination of the causes behind the 2014 war outbreak in Ukraine’s Donbas, contesting narratives that label the conflict simply as a civil war. Hauter asserts that the actions in Donbas were primarily fueled by a covert Russian invasion. He identifies deficiencies in current literature, focusing on issues such as vague definitions, historical determinism, selective emphasis, and a conflation of correlation with causation due to overreliance on public opinion data.
Hauter notes that much of the existing literature claims that the Donbas war encompasses elements of both civil and interstate conflict, stressing either Russian involvement or domestic factors (as seen in works by Kudelia, Katchanovski, and others). He argues, however, that the conflict can more clearly be understood as an act of Russian aggression masquerading as a civil war. Through a detailed case study, Hauter substantiates his thesis that Russia’s actions in 2014 were an indisputable interstate invasion, even as domestic factors play a role.
Furthermore, the book contributes significantly to conflict studies by revisiting the distinctions between civil and interstate conflicts. Hauter critiques existing frameworks for failing to adequately consider cases like Donbas, where domestic and international influences are deeply intertwined. By disentangling these elements and illustrating how Russia orchestrated the conflict with covert operatives and propaganda, Hauter challenges the prevalent “civil war hypothesis” accepted by many Western scholars.
Utilizing a mix of theoretical rigor and empirical evidence, the book critiques the academic and political narratives surrounding the conflict and proposes an innovative methodology—digital forensic process tracing—to navigate the complex information landscape of modern warfare. This adaptation acknowledges the significance of technology in research, as the 2014 Donbas War was notably one of the first conflicts framed within the social media era.
A notable strength of Hauter’s work lies in its innovative methodological approach. He introduces “digital forensic process tracing,” employing open-source information, such as social media data, to reconstruct key events and assess causal dynamics. This methodology complements initiatives like Bellingcat’s investigations into Ukraine, which similarly utilize open-source intelligence to unveil Russian military involvement. By addressing the challenges of misinformation, Hauter positions this method as a means to enhance clarity in modern conflict research. Its applicability extends to other contemporary conflicts with significant online coverage, which is particularly pertinent in the context of the Donbas war, where conflicting information has led to widespread confusion.
The book is organized around six “critical junctures” that influenced the escalation of the Donbas war from April to August 2014. Each chapter examines these junctures, highlighting the interaction of local dynamics, Russian involvement, and wider geopolitical contexts. Hauter details the initial protests in Donetsk and Luhansk, emphasizing their orchestration by Russian actors rather than being spontaneous grassroots movements. He identifies the occupation of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk as a pivotal moment, detailing Igor Girkin’s role in coordinating secessionist activities. A comparison of the unsuccessful separatist movement in Mariupol with other regions illustrates how varying local resistance and Russian interference shaped the conflict’s course. Hauter also analyzes Russia’s logistical support, such as tank convoys and artillery strikes, which decisively altered the balance against Ukrainian forces, countering claims that the conflict was merely an internal uprising.
Despite its rigorous academic approach, the book remains clear and accessible, avoiding excessive jargon to appeal to both scholars and casual readers. Hauter’s meticulous incorporation of open-source intelligence and his ability to merge detailed analysis with broader theoretical insights render this book a significant contribution to the field. However, the reliance on digital sources prompts questions about the reproducibility of findings. The presence of disinformation and data manipulation online presents inherent challenges, and while Hauter acknowledges these limitations, some conclusions may be seen as contentious.
Russia’s Overlooked Invasion is a vital read for scholars, policymakers, and anyone trying to understand the intricacies of the Donbas conflict and the broader consequences of Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Hauter’s precise methodology and insightful analysis provide essential lessons not only for this specific conflict but also for comprehending the nature of contemporary hybrid warfare. By framing the 2014 conflict as an interstate war initiated by covert Russian involvement, Hauter compels the international community to reconsider its approach to Russian aggression and its implications for global security. This book is a timely and significant addition to the literature on post-Soviet conflicts, Eastern Europe’s geopolitics, and Russia’s ongoing actions in Ukraine since February 2022.
References
Giuliano, Elise. 2018. “Who Supported Separatism in Donbas? Ethnicity and Popular Opinion at the Start of the Ukraine Crisis.” Post-Soviet Affairs 34 (2–3): 158–78.
Katchanovski, Ivan. 2016. “The Separatist War in Donbas: A Violent Break-up of Ukraine?” European Politics and Society 17 (4): 473–489.
Kudelia, Serhiy. 2016. “The Donbas Rift.” Russian Politics & Law 54 (1): 5–27.
Loshkariov, Ivan D., and Andrey A. Sushentsov. 2016. “Radicalization of Russians in Ukraine: From ‘Accidental’ Diaspora to Rebel Movement.” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 16 (1): 71–90.
Matveeva, Anna. 2016. “No Moscow Stooges: Identity Polarization and Guerrilla Movements in Donbass.” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 16 (1): 25–50.
Melnyk, Oleksandr. 2020. “From the ‘Russian Spring’ to the Armed Insurrection: Russia, Ukraine and Political Communities in the Donbas and Southern Ukraine.” The Soviet and Post-Soviet Review 47 (1): 3–38.
Mykhnenko, Vlad. 2020. “Causes and Consequences of the War in Eastern Ukraine: An Economic Geography Perspective.” Europe-Asia Studies 72 (3): 528–560.
Sakwa, Richard. 2015. Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands. London: I.B. Tauris.
Sakwa, Richard. 2017. “The Ukraine Syndrome and Europe: Between Norms and Space.” The Soviet and Post-Soviet Review 44 (1): 9–31.
Sotiriou, Stylianos A. 2016. “The Irreversibility of History: The Case of the Ukrainian Crisis (2013–2015).” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 16 (1): 51–70.
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