As July 4th approaches, much of the South is bracing for a soggy holiday weekend. A lingering cold front is expected to bring repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms, particularly across Florida, southeastern Georgia, and the Carolinas. Forecasters are also monitoring a potential tropical system that could develop off the Southeast coast, raising concerns about flash flooding and travel disruptions.
What to Know:
- Heavy rain is forecasted across Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through Sunday, with the highest flood risk concentrated in Florida.
- Flash flood watches are in effect for parts of southeastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina, and much of the Florida Peninsula.
- The National Hurricane Center has given a “medium” chance of tropical development over the next seven days.
- If the system organizes, it could form anywhere from the east coast of Florida to near Charleston, South Carolina.
- Most forecast models suggest the system will not intensify significantly, but it could bring several inches of rain.
- Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches are possible in some areas, with localized amounts even higher.
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Severe thunderstorm watch issued for tri-state area through 10 p.m.
The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484, in effect until 10 p.m. EDT Thursday, covering parts of Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York as a strong cold front moves through the region.
The watch includes four counties in southern Connecticut—Fairfield, Middlesex, New Haven, and New London—along with five counties in northeast New Jersey, including Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, and Union.
In New York, 11 counties are under the watch, including all five boroughs of New York City as well as Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and Putnam counties.
Forecasters warn of damaging wind gusts, isolated hail, and the potential for power outages. Residents are urged to monitor local alerts and take shelter if warnings are issued.
Northeast to see ideal July 4th weather after Thursday storms
After a stretch of unsettled weather, the Northeast is on track for a picture-perfect Fourth of July. While Thursday brings a risk of severe storms from Pennsylvania through New England, including cities like New York, Philadelphia, and Boston, conditions are expected to clear rapidly once a cold front moves through.
According to the National Weather Service, damaging winds are the primary concern on Thursday evening. But by Friday, dry air and sunshine will take over, setting the stage for what meteorologists are calling “ideal conditions” for the holiday weekend.
Highs on July 4 are expected to reach the mid-80s with low humidity and clear skies—perfect for fireworks, barbecues, and beach outings. The pleasant weather is forecast to continue through Sunday, though temperatures will climb into the 90s in some areas by the end of the weekend.
Map shows which states will be hit hardest by ‘drenching’ tropical storm
Four Southeastern states are at risk of “drenching” thunderstorms associated with a possible tropical storm off the coast that could form this weekend.
Even if the storm doesn’t form, it will bring heavy rainfall and a risk of dangerous flash floods along the southeastern U.S. coast this weekend and early next week.
If it forms, Tropical Storm Chantal will be the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. The first storm, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed last week and caused no United States-related impacts. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Bay of Campeche last weekend and impacted Eastern Mexico.
