The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays battle Wednesday with the American League East on the line when they face off at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Yankees have struggled of late and enter Wednesday 48-37, a one-game lead over the 74-38 Blue Jays. Wednesday’s game is the third of a four-game series between the two divisional foes.
Will Warren (5-4, 4.37 ERA) gets the start for New York while Toronto counters with José BerrÃos (4-3, 3.26).
Sportsbooks have set Warren’s strikeouts prop at 4.5, while Berrios’ is 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts (-116) as a 5-star play on its 5-star scale. It is the model’s only 5-star pitcher strikeout prop for Wednesdday. As for Berrios, Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140) is graded as a 3-star play.
In addition to Warren going Over 4.5 strikeouts, the model has found value elsewhere across Wednesday’s loaded MLB schedule, including a big-name starter with a 4.5-star grade and two 4-star recommendations for their pitcher strikeout player props.Â
Will Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts (-116) vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts
Warren’s strikeout prop is the model’s top-graded pitcher prop of the day for Wednesday. The 26-year-old right-hander has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts 13 times across his 17 starts, including all but two of his last 13 outings and each of his last three starts. Warren has a strikeout rate of just under 30% on the year, good for an 89th percentile ranking among MLB starters this season.
Nick Martinez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-115) vs. Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts
Martinez (5-8, 4.12 ERA) has eclipsed 4.5 total strikeouts seven times in 18 appearances (16 starts) this season, including his most recent outing, when he struck out six in eight innings of one-hit ball against the Padres. He has a good matchup for punchouts on Wednesday as the Red Sox have struck out the the third-most times in baseball in 2025.
Didier Fuentes Martinez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-112) vs. Angels (7:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
The rookie Fuentes (0-2, 10.80 ERA) makes his just third career MLB start on Wednesday when the Braves take on the Angels, and the model likes the Over on his 4.5 strikeouts player prop line. He has totaled just 8.1 innings across his first two MLB starts while striking out just four batters, but the Angels have the second-most strikeouts in baseball this year and Fuentes had an 11.0 K/9 rate in the minors before he made his debut.Â
Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 strikeouts (-121) vs. Orioles (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.6 strikeouts
Eovaldi (4-3, 1.87 ERA) was in Cy Young contention before an injury cost him a month, and he just made his first start since coming off the injured list. The veteran right-hander was limited in his outing against the Seattle Mariners last week, and he struck out two in three innings. Before that last shortened start, Eovaldi had gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in nine of 12 starts to open the year. The Orioles have struck out the seventh-most in MLB this year, for good measure.
