SYDNEY, Mar 10 – Speaking at the recent annual conference of the Bangladesh Administrative Service Association, Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus has emphasized the need to create opportunities for young people, asserting that Bangladesh’s large population is not a burden but a valuable resource.
A day later, Deputy Commissioners (DCs) proposed the introduction of universal military training for youths, aiming to involve them in the country’s defence efforts.
Of course, this is a political decision, and it requires serious examinations of the proposed programme’s budgetary implications.
We have done some preliminary budget estimates. The good news is that we can introduce the programme progressively over 5-8 years, say beginning with 10% of those turning 18 years as a pilot and then gradually cover the entire cohort of 18-20 years old who are able to serve.
The context – seismic demographic shift
In 50 years since independence, Bangladesh’s population more than doubled from around 70 million (7 crore) to around 174 million (17 crore), turning Bangladesh as one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Despite a rapid fall in fertility, Bangladesh’s population will continue to grow largely due to the momentum effect. UN Population Division projects that Bangladesh’s total population will reach its peak in 2071 with a population of 226 million.
Bangladesh is well into the third phase of demographic transition, having shifted from a high mortality-high fertility regime to a low mortality-low fertility one. As shown in the population pyramid (Figure 1), there is a youth bulge comprising about 28% of the population in the age bracket 15-29.
Figure 1: Bangladesh’s population by age (2024)
The UN projects that by 2030, the proportion of youth in the age bracket 15-29 years will decline to around 25% and by 2050 to around 20%. So, this is our demographic moment that comes only once (see Figure 2).
As Professor Yunus stressed, young population is a blessing – a source of strength, energy and vigour. A country with a large number of young people not only has a large pool of work force, but also a large pool of potential future leaders – often referred to…
However, demographic dividend is not prearranged. It is an opportunity provided by the age structural transition. This window of opportunity opens for a population only once. If missed, it may become a “demographic curse”.
A country can “become old before becoming developed” – as we see in the case of Sri Lanka- characterised by a large proportion of elderly population (non-working age) while the nation still struggles with poverty and infrastructure issues. Thus, the country not only has fewer working-age people (i.e., a smaller work force), but also has to support a large number of people in their older age. Such a demographic situation potentially hinders a country’s economic progress and creates challenges for its social welfare systems.
Thus, an increase in the proportion of young people in…
This can be shown by decomposing the neo-classical production function as follows: Y/P = Y/SE x SE/E x E/LF x LF/WP x WP/P, where Y = GDP, P = population, E = employment, SE = skilled employment, LF = labour force, WP = working-age population.
Thus, GDP per capita (Y/P) is the product of:
- productivity gains due to skilled employment (Y/SE),
- proportion of skilled employment (SE/E),
- employment rate (E/LF),
- labour force participation rate (LF/WP) and
- demography, i.e., proportion of working age population (WP/P).
Bangladesh’s demographic dividend may become a mirage. The recent student/youth unrest which began with a demand for quota reform and ultimately toppled the Hasina regime is a clear indication of the economy’s inability to absorb these youthful people in productive employment or turn them into entrepreneurs. The official unemployment figure of about 3-4% based on outdated labour force survey methodology does not reflect the reality.
National service – a feasible urgent solution
Our most critical challenge is preventing demographic curse and reaping demographic dividend. Mandatory national service, comprising some basic defence training, IT and general literacy-numeracy and vocational skills, will not only bring enormous economic benefits, but also prepare the…
