Donald Trump was direct in his warning in December that there would be severe consequences in the Middle East if Israeli hostages in Gaza were not released before his inauguration. The belligerent tone of the US president-elect added momentum to stalled talks, leading to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. This deal ended a 15-month war in Gaza and resulted in the release of the remaining 98 hostages.
Trump’s associate, Steve Witkoff, played a crucial role in mediating between Qatar, Israel, and Hamas to secure the deal that had evaded the Biden administration. This agreement should grant Gazans relief from the war and allow them to begin the process of rebuilding.
While the hope is that the ceasefire will hold, there are concerns about potential spoilers from various sides, including Hamas. The agreement is based on a three-phase proposal endorsed by Biden in May, with the first phase focusing on a 42-day truce and the release of hostages and prisoners.
The second phase is more complex, aiming for a permanent ceasefire, full hostage release, and Israeli troop withdrawal. Netanyahu’s commitment to this phase will be tested, as he faces resistance from within his government.
There is uncertainty about the future governance of the strip, as Israeli, US, and Arab parties are wary of Hamas regaining control. The Biden administration has been discussing the potential formation of an international security force to work with a Palestinian administration in dealing with civilian affairs.
Trump’s focus may shift towards seeking a grand bargain involving Saudi Arabia’s normalization of relations with Israel. However, Riyadh insists this can only happen if Israel makes significant progress towards a Palestinian state.
Halting the war was a lengthy negotiation process, but the challenges of rebuilding Gaza and achieving sustainable peace are far from over.
