Donald Trump’s election as US president is already shaking up international efforts on climate change and taxation, with diplomats from the world’s wealthiest nations struggling to keep a fragile consensus on the eve of a G20 summit in Brazil.
Argentina, led by President Javier Milei, a close ally of Trump, is threatening to block a joint communique that G20 leaders were set to endorse at the Rio de Janeiro meeting starting Monday, due to objections surrounding the taxation of the super-rich and gender equality, sources familiar with the negotiations told the Financial Times.
Diplomats are working frantically to come to a final agreement on statements related to climate finance and geopolitical issues such as Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, as leaders start to arrive in the Brazilian city.
Negotiators for the 20 participating nations, along with the EU and African Union, have circulated a compromise text for preliminary approval on Sunday evening, but it remains uncertain whether all countries will ultimately agree to it. Brazilian officials are anticipating bilateral discussions with the Argentine delegation, as per an informed source.
The challenges in determining how much developing nations should contribute to financial efforts to combat global warming echo negotiations at the COP29 climate summit happening concurrently in Baku.
Milei’s position has heightened concerns among many western diplomats, who worry that Trump’s election will embolden his conservative allies and lead to a withdrawal of countries from ambitious agreements on issues like climate change. Trump has pledged to withdraw the US from the Paris climate accords.
“[The Argentine government] aims to turn the G20 in Brazil into a test between old and new forces,” a Brazilian official remarked. “After a year of negotiations on taxation and consensus, they are now causing issues on matters they had previously accepted without dispute.”
Buenos Aires’ opposition to the initial draft communique prepared by the leaders’ representatives in the Brazilian city followed Milei’s encounter with Trump in Florida on Thursday, marking Trump’s first meeting with a foreign leader since winning the election. Argentina was the sole country to vote against a UN resolution last week condemning online violence against women and girls.
The Rio summit, where Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will lead discussions focused on combating poverty, governance reform in international institutions, and climate issues, is the first assembly of leaders from the most powerful countries worldwide following the US election, as many leaders skipped the COP summit.
Several officials at the event, where Lula will introduce a global alliance against hunger, fear that it will be overshadowed by Trump’s opposition to many of its planned resolutions.
“We are expected to discuss the future of global cooperation and act as if there isn’t this individual heading to the White House who couldn’t care less,” commented a European official involved in the communique negotiations. “It’s difficult to see how any decisions made here will have a lasting impact.”
Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund, noted, “The issues that Brazil has put on the agenda are precisely those that could be most at risk under the Trump administration… These multilateral organizations embody exactly the kind of structures that President-elect Trump and his team disapprove of.”
Argentina opposed including language related to taxation that Milei’s government had agreed to during a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors last month, according to sources briefed on the discussions.
The declaration from October committed to “work together towards a fairer, more inclusive, stable, and efficient international tax system fitting for the 21st century, reaffirming our dedication to tax transparency and fostering global dialogue on effective taxation, including of ultra-high-net-worth individuals”.
Milei also objected to mentions of the Paris agreement and a pledge to “remain united in pursuing the goals of the accord,” as well as the reference to the US’s 2030 agenda on sustainable development.
The Argentine leader withdrew his negotiating team from the COP29 summit this week, following his conversation with Trump the day before.
On Saturday, the UN’s climate chief Simon Stiell urged G20 leaders to “send unmistakable global signals,” as negotiators in Baku wrestle with progressing on an agreement to raise more global funds for climate finance.
The hurdles in finalizing the G20 communique only add to the existing tensions within the group regarding Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will skip the Rio summit, but his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is anticipated to maintain Beijing’s stance of obstructing western efforts to denounce Moscow for its actions against Ukraine.
This summit will also mark the final appearance for US President Joe Biden, whose administration aimed to utilize multilateral organizations such as NATO, the G7, and G20 to address issues like the conflict in Ukraine.
“So, with all the efforts we made with the US [under Biden], what do we do now?” questioned a senior European diplomat. “We have lost the initiative.
“Biden consistently aimed to consult with us to the extent possible,” the diplomat added. “Trump will simply chart his own course.”
