“We are edging toward an imminent freshwater bankruptcy,” warned Hrishikesh Chandanpurkar, the study’s lead author. “Glaciers and deep groundwater are like ancient trust funds. Instead of saving them for times of real need, we are draining them.”
What the satellites saw
Researchers analyzed over two decades of data from NASA’s GRACE and GRACE-Follow On missions, which measure subtle shifts in Earth’s gravity to track changes in water storage underground, in soils, snow, and glaciers. The findings stunned even veteran scientists:
- Drying regions are expanding by an area twice the size of California every year.
- 75 percent of the world’s population, in 101 countries, has lived through continuous freshwater loss since 2002.
- Groundwater depletion now contributes more to sea level rise than melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica combined.
Four mega-drying regions
The research identifies four massive belts of continental-scale drying, all in the Northern Hemisphere:
- Southwestern North America & Central America: From California’s farmlands to Mexico City.
- Alaska and Northern Canada: Accelerated melting of glaciers and permafrost.
- Northern Russia: Snow and ice losses across Siberia.
- Middle East–North Africa into Eurasia: Spanning from the deserts of the Arabian Peninsula through Ukraine and northern India to China’s North Plain.
These regions include some of the planet’s most critical agricultural zones and densely populated cities, places where water stress could trigger food shortages, migration, and political instability.The study found 68 percent of land water loss came from groundwater alone, a largely invisible crisis.
Why it matters now
The researchers warn that without immediate, coordinated policies to slow groundwater pumping, improve recharge, and share water data, the crisis will deepen. “We can’t negotiate with physics,” Famiglietti said. “Water is life. When it’s gone, everything else unravels.”
The findings will feed into a forthcoming World Bank report on water security and global economic stability.