Life is full of uncertainty and unpredictability. We are never sure about what will happen in the future, what happened in the past, or what is happening beyond our immediate experiences. Uncertainty is often described as a conscious awareness of ignorance, whether it’s about the weather tomorrow, who will win the next Premier League, the climate in 2100, or our ancient ancestors.
In our daily lives, we use words like “might,” “could,” or “is likely to” to express uncertainty. However, these uncertain words can be misleading. For example, when President John F. Kennedy was informed in 1961 about a CIA plan to invade Cuba, his military advisers said it had a 30% chance of success, which they considered a fair chance. This led to the Bay of Pigs invasion failure.
Attempts have been made to convert uncertain words into numerical probabilities, leading us into the mathematical realm of probability. This is commonly used in various fields today, like science journals full of P values and confidence intervals.
Numerical probabilities, however, are not objective properties of the world but constructions based on personal or collective judgments and assumptions. Probability is rarely an estimation of some underlying true quantity and cannot be said to exist in many circumstances.
While probability has flooded fields like finance, astronomy, and law, it remains a subjective assessment, especially when used in scientific contexts. Even when probabilities are based on statistical models, these models are influenced by subjective assumptions that may vary.
In many cases, probabilities are expressions of personal or collective uncertainty rather than reflections of underlying objective truths. Despite the use of probabilities in various fields, from science to economic activity, their subjectivity remains a fundamental aspect of their application. It can be useful to act as if probabilities are objective, but in reality, they are often just reflections of our uncertainties and assumptions.
