Finally, there’s some good news to report from NOAA, the parent organization of the National Hurricane Center, or NHC: During the highly active 2o24 Atlantic hurricane season, the NHC made record-accurate track forecasts at every time interval (12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 60-, 72-, 96-, and 120-hour forecasts), according to the preliminary 2024 NHC Forecast Verification Report released on Feb. 24. And 2024 research suggests that the research dollars spent since 2007 on improved hurricane forecasts could have led to over $10 billion in combined benefits just for the two major hurricanes that hit in 2024, Helene and Milton. But the budget for hurricane research could be slashed under the Trump administration.
Intensity forecasts were also very good in 2024
NHC’s forecasts for intensity — or storm strength — in 2024 had average errors slightly higher than the past couple of years, and no records were set for accuracy. However, the intensity forecasts for 2024 were more challenging than usual: The year witnessed 34 instances of rapid intensification, defined as a minimum 35 mph wind speed increase within 24 hours. This number of rapid intensification events nearly doubled the average over the past decade. Predicting rapid intensification remains a significant hurdle in hurricane forecasting.
One other thing…around 2010, the idea that you could have 70% detection of rapid intensification at 24 hours (as NHC did last year) would have been unheard of. This is legitimately a major scientific achievement brought about by talented scientists and the support of programs… https://t.co/X1mJzpl73p
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) February 24, 2025
Credit the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, or HFIP, was established within NOAA in response to the devastating hurricanes of 2004-2005, including Charley in 2004 and Wilma, Katrina, and Rita in 2005. The project began in 2009 with the objective of reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 20% over five years (by 2014) and by 50% over 10 years (by 2019.) Advancements under the project have resulted in a nearly 50% decline in wind-speed prediction errors since 2007, according to a 2024 National Bureau of Economic Research study, “The Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts.” During that same period, the average track error for two-day and longer forecasts improved by about a factor of two (Fig. 1).
Hurricane research at risk from budget cuts
As we wrote last week in our post, Cuts to U.S. weather and climate research could put public safety at risk, NOAA is targeted to receive significant budget cuts this year, with the organization potentially being broken up and some of its functions privatized. In Project 2025, the blueprint that the Trump administration has been following so far for slashing government, NOAA’s Office of Atmospheric Research is singled out as “the source of much of NOAA’s climate alarmism” and the document calls for most of the office’s research to end.
But in addition to doing a large amount of climate change research, the Office of Atmospheric Research houses the top two centers for hurricane research: the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Improved hurricane forecasts have been a huge benefit to society at a low cost, with many lives saved and billions in damage prevented. Major cuts to the budgets of these two labs would likely significantly slow progress in making better hurricane forecasts, preventing us from saving billions of dollars per year from future hurricanes.
Improved forecasts have resulted in over $5 billion in savings per major hurricane landfall
A 2024 study by the non-profit, non-partisan National Bureau of Economic Research, “The Social Value of Hurricane Forecasts,” found that recent advancements in hurricane forecasting for 18 continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes from 2005-2020 (including all nine major landfalls and nine of the 20 additional Cat 1 and Cat 2 landfalls) led to a 19% reduction in total hurricane-related costs — an average cost reduction of $5 billion per hurricane. The benefits came either by decreasing deaths and damages or by inspiring confidence in decisions not to spend money on pre-storm adaptation measures.
This average benefit per hurricane is on par with the entire 2024 NOAA budget of $6.8 billion, and far in excess of the yearly $1-$4 million 2011-2013 cost of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project. And these benefits were likely considerably underestimated, the researchers said, since they only looked at the value of improved wind speed forecasts and did not study improved rainfall and storm surge forecasts.
Given these results, it is plausible that the research dollars spent since 2007 on improved hurricane forecasts led to over $10 billion in combined benefits for the two major hurricanes that hit in 2024, Helene and Milton. Additional billions in benefits may also have accrued for the improved forecasts for the three other hurricanes that hit the U.S.: Cat 1 Beryl, Cat 2 Francine, and Cat 1 Debby.
